Ipsos Housing Monitor: Younger Kiwis feel increasingly locked out of home ownership, more than almost anywhere else in the world

The sentiment among younger New Zealanders is also stronger than in comparable countries including Australia (80%), the United States (74%), Canada (72%), and Britain (71%).

Similarly, 77% of New Zealanders think that young people will have a hard time affording their own home, even if they’re working hard in a good job.

And home ownership seems a distant dream for a majority of those yet to gain a foothold on the property ladder: two in three renters don’t believe they’ll ever be able to afford a home of their own, with price being the biggest hurdle.

Similar results emerged in a Kiwibank housing survey at the end of last year, which found a high proportion (76%) believing future generations will be shut out of home ownership without financial help from their parents. And 65% of Gen Z and 43% of millennials had support from the Bank of Mum and Dad to get on to the property ladder.

“Housing aspirations are broadly similar across different countries and generations; home ownership is the dream,” the Ipsos report says.

“All age groups, everywhere, think rising house prices are not a good thing. Housing ‘haves’ are able to see the bigger picture and are sympathetic to the plight of priced-out ‘have-nots’.”

These issues have been on the Government’s radar, and it has a series of policies aimed at more housing and lower prices.

“There is a whole generation of young New Zealanders who have been locked out of the housing market because average house prices are too high,” Housing Minister Chris Bishop said last year.

“If we’re going to be a property-owning democracy, which [we] used to be, we need to make housing more affordable.”

But the Ipsos survey found that a majority (54%) of New Zealanders believe the Government is on the wrong track when it comes to housing, even as interest rates continue their downward trend.

This doesn’t mean that people are disgruntled with where they are living, however. The survey found that 73% of New Zealanders are happy with their current housing situation, and only 13% are unhappy.

Even a majority of renters (57%) said they were happy with their rental, higher than the global average (47%).

Price-sensitive

Home ownership in New Zealand peaked at 74% in 1991, fell progressively to 64.5% in 2018, and recovered slightly in 2023 to 66%, according to Census data.

According to the Ipsos survey, the biggest issue is price: “high property prices” (51%) and “cost of renting is too high” (49%) topped the list of the biggest housing challenge; with 70% of renters ticking the latter, well above the global average of 43%.

Three in five New Zealanders expected house prices to go up in the following year, while even more – three in four – expected the cost of renting to increase.

The Government reintroduced interest deductibility for landlords, and hoped it would put downward pressure on rental prices. But the latest inflation figures show rents rising by 4.2% in the year to December.

Next on the list of biggest housing challenges is the “rising cost of building housing” (32%), followed by high interest rates (27%).

New Zealanders are much more likely to cite “not enough housing being built” than the global average (21% versus 16%), and much less likely to say “taxes are too high” (19% versus 28%).

Only 24% said there was enough affordable housing to buy or rent in their local area, and a majority (64%) are not confident that this will be built in the next few years.

The survey showed that the cost of living remains a pressing concern: 46% of New Zealanders with mortgages are worried about covering their repayments in 12 months’ time, much higher than the global average (39%). A majority of tenants (55%) have the same concerns about paying the rent.

Credit data from October 2024 show mortgage arrears increasing by 10% compared with a year earlier. The Official Cash Rate at the time was 4.75%, but has since fallen to 4.25% with a further reduction possible next month. The unemployment rate, however, climbed to 4.8% in the September 2024 quarter, and is forecast to keep rising to 5.2%.

The survey also revealed a false belief: 47% of New Zealanders believe that average house prices rose in the last year. In fact, the average fell slightly (0.3%) and was 15% lower than the market peak three years ago.

Location, location, location

The Ipsos survey results suggest that New Zealand buyers aren’t willing to move to a place they don’t like for a cheaper home.

The rankings for the most important characteristics are:

This bucks the global trend, where value for money (47%) is ranked above good location (45%).

Kiwis also prefer a detached house in suburbia (41%) than one in the country (23%) or in the inner city (12%). Apartments were less preferable than houses.

Kiwis are also far more likely to say rising house prices are good for them (29% compared to the global average of 19%). Unsurprisingly, this sentiment is very strong among New Zealand home owners (41%), while most renters (80%) disagree.

A majority (59% on average) in all but four countries (Poland, Italy, France, and Japan) agree that it’s too easy for landlords to take advantage of tenants. In New Zealand, 61% agree with this.

The sentiment is unsurprisingly higher among renters than home owners, but a majority of the latter (56%) still think the power imbalance lies too heavily in favour of landlords.

In changes to tenancy laws, the Government has swung the pendulum back towards landlords and away from tenants, arguing that it is ending the “war on landlords”.

The Ipsos survey was based on about 22,000 online adults under the age of 75 in 30 countries, including 1001 adults in New Zealand. The surveying was done over a two-week period up to December 6, 2024, except in New Zealand where it took place over a two-week period up to January 3, 2025.

The margin of error in the New Zealand sample is 3.5%.

Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.