North East businesses ‘cautiously optimistic’ amid challenges
Mid-market businesses are the “real powerhouse of the UK economy,” according to a North East partner at Grant Thornton UK.
Dan Dickinson, partner and practice leader for the firm, made the statement based on a survey of more than 600 UK mid-market decision makers.
The survey was conducted in April 2025, in light of the Government’s Spring Statement and six months on from the Autumn Budget.
Mr Dickinson said: “Mid-market businesses are the real powerhouse of the UK economy.
“Their plans, actions, and opinions are a clear bellwether of our economic health.
“This survey was undertaken in light of the Government’s Spring Statement and six months on from the Autumn Budget, both of which contained significant fiscal announcements which created cost increases for businesses in many areas.
“That mid-market leaders remain this positive is notable.”
The survey found that 80 per cent of businesses were optimistic about the UK’s economic prospects over the next six months, a three percentage point decrease since February.
However, 59 per cent expect their organisation’s profits to increase in the next six months, an eight percentage point decrease since February.
Despite these decreases, the optimism indicators remain above average levels seen across the last four years.
The survey also revealed that 75 per cent of respondents consider the US a core growth market.
However, 61 per cent agreed that tariffs will have a negative impact on the growth of their business.
Despite this, mid-market leaders remain cautiously optimistic about cross-Atlantic trade.
Mr Dickinson said: “Having faced the considerable challenges of the last five years, dominated by the pandemic and its after-effects, many businesses are now hard-wired to withstand sudden shocks and have built resilience into their business model.”
However, of those businesses currently trading with the US (68 per cent of total respondents), nearly half (45 per cent) expect to stop trading with the US completely, and 25 per cent expect to scale down trading with the US.
Only a small number (9 per cent) do not expect any impact on their trade with the US.
Mr Dickinson concluded: “According to our research, businesses are moving quickly to consider all options on the table, from exploring alternative markets, to setting up US operations to moving elements of the supply chain back to the UK.
“Whilst the survey was undertaken before the announcement of the US-UK trade deal, we have seen limited details so far, and bearing in mind that negotiations in some areas are still in train, I suspect that the mid-market’s planning will have changed little – there is still a lot to be decided, and considering all options remains the right business course of action.”
He added: “Crucially, in the current unpredictable world, it is important not to take knee-jerk decisions when considering market focus or location of operations.
“These are longer-term decisions and assuming an outcome can result in locking a business into a costly change programme and higher cost environment.
“However, inertia can also negatively impact a business.
“Detailed sensitivity and options analysis, with flexible contingencies, is how we are seeing the better-prepared businesses responding in its current period of 3-6 months before we know more of where US policy, and key international trade deals, will end up.”