Falling net migration will ‘erode support for housing market’

Meanwhile, the 127,800 migrant departures in the November 2024 year were, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period, Stats NZ said.

Annual net migration provisionally peaked in the year ended October 2023, with a gain of 135,700.

Since then it has fallen steadily as the number of migrant arrivals has fallen and the number of Kiwis departing has risen.

The data highlighted that migration would be a headwind for the economy, said ASB senior economist Mark Smith.

“Despite signs of stabilisation in recent months, there is still some risk that net inflows fall faster and that net permanent and long-term outflows become more of the norm for 2025,” he said.

“This will erode a key leg of support for the NZ housing market, domestic demand and labour market capacity.”

But the latest figures do show that the record numbers of Kiwi departures are easing.

The October year saw the departure of more than 77,000 Kiwis for a net loss of 53,000.

The total number of departing Kiwis was 72,900 in the year to November.

Citizens of India, the Philippines, and China, drove net migration gains in the November 2024 year, Stats NZ said.

Travel stats

Stats NZ also released data on tourist arrivals today.

They showed overseas visitor arrivals were 321,200 in November 2024, an increase of 17,800 from November 2023.

However, the total number of overseas visitor arrivals was still just 86% of the 372,100 in November 2019 (before the Covid-19 pandemic).

Easing economic support from net immigration and tourism inflows would weigh on economic growth and translate into greater spare capacity, Smith said.

“Frontloaded monetary policy easing remains appropriate for now,” he said.

“We expect another 50bp cut in February and a 3.25% OCR endpoint in 2025, but monetary policy moves over 2025 remain highly conditional on the outlook with both upside and downside risks. ”

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.