Black Ferns bowing out not an upset, just upsetting

Black Ferns dejected at full time of their World Cup semifinal loss to Canada.
Photo: www.photosport.nz

Analysis: Don’t dream, it’s over.

If you didn’t know which of the teams playing in Saturday’s World Cup semi-final was professional and had to guess, you likely would have been very, very wrong.

The performance by Canada in their 34-19 win over the Black Ferns would’ve felt ever so sweet for the thousands of people who contributed to the team’s crowd funding effort for the World Cup, because now they stand on the brink of winning the whole thing.

Canada fully deserved their win and really, the writing was on the wall for the Black Ferns after only about 10 minutes. By then the Canadians had already racked up a lead they would never even come close to relinquishing for the rest of the game, built on slick hands, good decisions and willingness to beat the Black Ferns at their own game.

Asia Hogan-Rochester of Canada scores her team’s second try during the Women’s Rugby World Cup 2025 Semi Final match.
Photo: Paul Harding/Getty Images

This was a masterclass in coaching by Kevin Rouet, who can now boast two wins and a draw in Canada’s last three tests against the Black Ferns. Every possible Black Fern weakness and mistake had been scouted and planned for, then thoroughly exposed by his Canadian side.

And there were plenty of weaknesses and mistakes, that’s for sure.

For context: you cannot win a game of rugby without the ball, and you cannot have the ball if you are constantly giving away penalties. The Black Ferns found themselves on the wrong side of referee Amie Barrett-Theron early but can’t really have many complaints, with the final penalty count being 10-4 and two of those to the Black Ferns were garbage time calls. In fact, it took an hour for them to even be awarded one at all.

Florence Symonds of Canada scores her team’s third try during the Women’s Rugby World Cup 2025 Semi Final.
Photo: Paul Harding/Getty Images

So it was somewhat fitting that their one last roll of the dice was snuffed out by a foolish play by Sylvia Brunt, which promptly handed the ball back to the efficient Canadians to manufacture another easy call for Barrett-Theron under the Black Ferns’ posts. Sophie de Goede, wearing the number four jersey but filling about four other positions as well, took as much time as she was allowed to stroke the ball through and turn the last five minutes into a Canadian victory lap.

It was at that point that the stark comparison between the sides really started to sink in. While half of Canada’s match day squad play in the English, French and even one in Super Rugby Aupiki, rugby is still very much a minority sport there. There are no central playing contracts or salaries for their now incredibly over-achieving women’s side. For most budding players, simply getting to a purpose built rugby field involves a trip on a plane.

Sophie de Goede of Canada breaks clear.
Photo: David Rogers/Getty Images

The Black Ferns, on the other hand, are fully paid professional athletes. They have a proper local competition to prepare themselves and a myriad of training camps and facilities at their disposal. Co-captain Kennedy Tukuafu said that “this one will hurt for a long time” post-match, but she’s probably inadvertently included NZ Rugby’s officialdom in that statement too, because it appears not enough of the millions of dollars’ worth of funding was spent on teaching players the game’s laws.

But the unfortunate reality of this result is that, according to the world rankings and aforementioned recent results between the two sides, this was not an upset. It was upsetting, for sure, but Canada came in clearly knowing full well what to do to win based on some glaring deficiencies and the Black Ferns’ stubborn refusal over the last three years to entertain any sort of variation in the way they play.

High tempo attack is all well and good, especially with the sort of weapons the Black Ferns possess out wide. But if they were to have any chance after the fast start, they needed to slow things down and sap the Canadian momentum.

There just wasn’t a Plan B, because there’s never been one. The Black Ferns have played test rugby like it’s a video game for far too long and in the end, paid the ultimate price.

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