Election expert: The rise of Reform UK in the North East

As the Senior Data Scientist at a leading polling firm, my job is to predict how many seats parties might win and assess their standing in national polls.

Since last June’s general election, the rise of Reform UK has shattered long-held assumptions about the North East’s political landscape. This could be the political earthquake that follows the 2019 tremor.

Growing up in an ex-pit village near Durham, I assumed Labour’s dominance was unshakeable. Voting Labour felt as ingrained in the region’s identity as colliery monuments and terraced houses. But today, that assumption is crumbling.

Our latest modelling shows that Reform UK is on track to win 11 of the region’s 27 seats. A swing of just five points could push that number to 16, leaving Labour with only six.

The prospect of Labour’s dominance in the North East ending is no longer a possibility—it’s likely. For me, understanding why this is happening is not just a professional challenge, it’s deeply personal.

The region’s priorities have changed little since the last election. Before the vote, the NHS and support through the cost-of-living crisis were top concerns. By January, the cost of living took the top spot, but stopping illegal migration remained a consistent fourth, with about 30 per cent of voters naming it a top issue.

This stability suggests that changing priorities are not driving Reform UK’s rise. Instead, this shift seems deeper.

To understand Reform’s surge, I conducted a small focus group. The discussions revealed stark generational differences in why voters are turning to Reform UK.

For younger voters, the attraction lies in hope for the future. One participant said Reform aimed to “make England a good place to live.” They saw the party as better equipped to tackle the housing crisis and soaring interest rates, which they viewed as barriers to getting on in life. They felt deprivation was a key driver, with younger people seeing little hope in Labour’s vision.

Older voters, meanwhile, focused on broken promises and financial insecurity. A retired nurse in her late sixties pointed to the cancellation of the winter fuel allowance.

Many older participants lamented that pensioners “just over the threshold” for pension credit were being hit hardest. These voters also expressed anger at the long-term deprivation that has lingered since the mining industry’s decline.

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Despite generational differences, one theme united the group: a shared belief that Reform UK would “put the great back into Great Britain.” This sentiment of patriotism, and frustration with the two main parties, was palpable. For many, Reform represents a chance to restore pride in a country they feel has been left behind.

The rise of Reform UK in the North East isn’t about policies. It’s about trust, or rather, the lack of it.

Voters see the region as abandoned by Labour and unimportant to the Conservatives. Reform’s appeal seems to stem from a deep-seated belief that neither major party cares about their struggles.

For Labour, the warning signs are clear: trust, once lost, is extraordinarily difficult to rebuild. The North East’s political identity is shifting, and it’s unclear whether Labour can stop the tide. For a region that once embodied Labour’s strength, this is no less than a political earthquake.